As we get closer to election day, political discourse almost exclusively focuses on the map. From the number crunchers to the pundits to the casual follower, everyone has an opinion on the electoral college. In this dialogue, it has become conventional wisdom that McCain absolutely has to have Colorado. McCain’s camp has somewhat rejected this thinking, evidenced by recent reporting from CNN’s John King. His sources say they are transferring resources from Colorado to Pennsylvania. Their internal polling supposedly shows that he is only down 7 points there compared to RealClearPolitics’ 11.4 average lead for Obama. Regardless of which number is more accurate, this strategy is severely flawed. Instead, they should look to New Hampshire and a district in Maine.
Pennsylvania has been a very good state for Democrats. Many thought they had to worry in 2004, but Kerry won by a decisive three points. It also plays into the political calculus that Obama has banked on throughout his entire political career— having a near monopoly on an increased black, youth, and educated vote (Philadelphia) and minimizing the rural losses with economic populism. It will be very difficult for McCain to overcome this. Republican operatives point to Republican Senator Arlen Specter’s success with his commanding eleven point win in 2004. They think McCain can borrow his strategy by winning the Philadelphia suburbs and dominating the state between there and Pittsburgh. This is terribly flawed because Specter is pro-choice. One of the cardinal rules in political analysis is not to substantiate an argument on the presidential level by pointing to gubernatorial or congressional races. Presidential candidates have a lot less flexibility in their policy positions than a governor or congressman has. McCain could never have won the primary by being openly pro-choice.
The other problem with McCain looking at Pennsylvania is the state’s expensive media market. McCain’s financial disadvantage must make him that much more careful with his money. A real effort in the state would certainly take away significant resources from other must win states like Florida and Ohio.
If McCain loses CO and gives up PA, most people say he has no shot of winning this election. These critics adduce their argument by saying that he cannot even look at Midwestern states that used to look promising (Wisconsin, Michigan,or Minnesota) because of his large deficits there. So is it still possible that he can win without the Midwest or CO or PA? Yes.
McCain must obviously win Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Nevada. He is competitive in all of these states. If he can gain an extra point or two in the next two weeks parlayed with a minimal Bradley effect, he’ll get these states. That puts him at 265 assuming there are no anomalies like Texas or Georgia going to Obama. Since the Democrats win if they tie (they have more state legislatures than the Republicans), McCain must get 270. The formula for that is New Hampshire and a district in Maine.
McCain’s political career is arguably owed to the state of New Hampshire. His 2000 win there made it a race versus Bush and his primary win this year was the catalyst for his nomination. He is well liked there because of his independent image. It is a state famously known for being pro gun and staunchly anti-tax. This is an easy argument to be made against Obama in light of Obama’s condescending comments about guns and moral opposition to low taxes for high income earners. And New Hampshire is a relatively inexpensive media market. Some parts require paying Boston prices, but on the whole it is much cheaper than Pennsylvania. McCain is down 9.4 points according to the RealClearPolitics average. Anyone who has paid attention to politics in New Hampshire knows that this can made up. Or, more precisely, it is much likelier it can made up there than it can in Pennsylvania. The state barely went to John Kerry in 2004, who had the Boston edge, and Bush beat Gore there in 2000. McCain can win in NH.
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states who break up some of their electoral votes based on congressional districts. There has never been a split in either state, but no underdog party has ever really tried. McCain has made a commitment there and should keep it up. The district in Maine has many libertarians who dislike several Democratic proposals. If McCain dominates the media market and spends a day or two up there, it could make all the difference.
McCain can also use Sarah Palin effectively in New Hampshire and Maine. She and her husband make the pro gun argument better than McCain can. She can stick to her belief in the power of low tax rates to stimulate the economy. And to cap it off, they can talk about winter sports. It might sound silly to think that winter sports could help a candidate. But there have been a lot more gimmicky things done in politics than two average people from Alaska talking about cold weather, hockey, and snowmobiling with Northeasterners familiar with the travails of brutal winters. Perhaps she can talk about a McCain tax credit for heating oil this winter. I don’t know the specifics, but Republicans are great at executing stuff like that.
Underdogs always have a shot, but they have to be creative. The Miami Dolphins, a 1-15 team last year, had their running back take several direct snaps against the then undefeated New England Patriots in week three of the NFL. The repetition of this unusual play led to four rushing touchdowns and a whopping 38-13 win. In game seven of the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox, the underdog Rays used a rookie pitcher to finish the last four outs of the game in light of a struggling bullpen. To win, McCain has got to use a strategy like this to pull off the biggest political comeback since Harry Truman’s 1948 win.
