Arlen Specter’s recent switch to the Democratic Party amplified a burgeoning narrative of Republican parochialism. Republicans have supposedly failed in recent elections because they are glued to the moribund thinking of the 1980s that emphasized social conservatism, low taxes, and a strong defense. That coalition has withered away and conventional wisdom says to survive they must embrace new constituencies like Hispanics and gays. Perhaps that is true. Or maybe they are just a victim of an almost scientific process?
Voters in the 2006 midterms cited corruption as their main reason for voting Republicans out of office. Not Iraq, not social values, but corruption. This did not happen because Democratic politicians somehow had a monopoly on virtue, but because it was the inevitable consequence of Republican longevity and power. They controlled all three branches of government and owed too many people too many favors after the steady accumulation of quid pro quos. That’s politics.
If the impediment to Republican success is narrowness, then how did they win using the 1980s formula just four years ago? The demographics are pretty much the same. Pundits can always counter with such claims as Kerry was a particularly weak candidate or Republicans effectively exploited terrorism, but if those were the real variables at play then that just further illustrates the insignificance of party platforms.
Republicans are in a flux because they are simply a function of the political pendulum. With Democrats currently in charge of all three branches of government, they too will be inevitably blamed for corruption and failed promises. Steep inflation could lead Republicans to steal a page out of James Carville’s 1992 playbook, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Whatever the issue might be, something will trigger a change back to the other party. That’s how a two party system functions.
Popular Personalities and ad hoc policy gambits might prolong the power of one party or hasten the demise of the opposition, but the parties are in a permanent tug of war governed by a liberal constitution. All political players are just actors in a script that was written long ago. Taking that approach strips the excitement and fun out of the game. So all of us accent specific variables to attribute blame for the ephemeral fall of one party. But we should just be cognizant of the real truth. And then continue to play.
